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The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit, held Sept. 29-30 in Minneapolis, examined economic pressures, customer behavior, AI and industry channels. HIRI forecast that the home improvement products market would grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, but shrink 1.5% after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) used its Sept. 29-30 summit in Minneapolis to present research and discuss the forces shaping home improvement, including affordability, inflation, customer behavior and artificial intelligence. HIRI’s market forecast calls for 2.5% growth in current dollars in 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation, highlighting the difference between nominal sales and the market’s inflation-adjusted outlook.
The event brought together home improvement leaders and professionals for sessions organized around five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending and sales channels. The program connected national economic conditions and housing decisions with how homeowners and contractors plan, choose products and make purchases.
Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the National Association of Home Builders, opened the summit with a discussion of inflation and other factors affecting homebuilding and homebuying. She noted that the median age of a first-time homebuyer is 40, compared with 29 in 1981. HIRI’s Dave King also discussed buyer conditions with Ralph McLaughlin of OpenBrand and Michael Zdinak of S&P Global, including the roles of home affordability, mortgage rates and income.
Research presented by Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, included results from the partners’ Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The index put contractors’ confidence in securing business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman said the company’s 2026 research found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households using AI for help.
AI and Inflation Shape Spending
The forecast points to a mixed picture for manufacturers, retailers and contractors: spending measured in current dollars is projected to rise, while the inflation-adjusted market is projected to contract. Those figures describe different measures, and the real-dollar decline suggests that headline growth alone may not reflect how much product homeowners can buy.
The summit’s AI findings also offer a signal about changing research and planning habits, not proof that AI is driving renovation spending. HIRI and Houzz reported the shares of homeowners and renovation dollars associated with AI use; the material does not establish that AI caused projects to proceed or increased their budgets. For businesses, the discussion underscores the need to understand how customers use digital tools alongside advice from professionals.
Contractor confidence was relatively high on the reported index, but it is a measure of expectations for the next six months, not a count of booked work or a guarantee of future sales. Taken together, the figures give industry participants a way to weigh demand expectations against affordability pressures and inflation.
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The Summit’s Five Market Themes
HIRI’s annual insights summit is a forum for presenting research and discussing conditions across the home improvement market. The 2026 program combined economic analysis with data on the customer journey, project spending and the channels through which products reach buyers. This mix matters because housing costs and income affect whether households take on projects, while contractor availability, retail options and online research affect how those projects are carried out.
Speakers also addressed how companies can earn customer trust. Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, described the brand’s approach as educating first, avoiding mistakes and not appearing transactional. King’s closing message to manufacturers was to take uncertainty out of customers’ decisions in the coming quarter. That advice reflected the summit’s emphasis on helping buyers make choices amid economic and market uncertainty.
““Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.””
— Dave King, HIRI
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Forecasts Leave Demand Questions
The summit recap provides forecasts and survey findings, but it does not include the full assumptions, sample sizes or methodology behind every figure. The reported 2.5% nominal growth and 1.5% inflation-adjusted contraction are HIRI’s outlook for 2026, not final year-end results. Actual spending could differ as economic conditions and household decisions change.
The recap does not break down which renovation categories or customer groups account for AI use, explain how the 25% share of renovation dollars was calculated, or show whether AI use changed project outcomes. It also does not provide detail on the contractor index’s respondents or how the 8.2 score compares with prior readings. Those limits make it difficult to infer how broadly the results apply or to treat them as measures of realized sales.
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Watch the Next Market Readings
HIRI’s next market reports and updates will help show whether its 2026 forecast tracks actual conditions and how expectations evolve as the industry enters 2027. Businesses will also be watching further research on affordability, project spending, contractor sentiment and the role AI plays in renovation planning.
For manufacturers and retailers, King’s near-term recommendation is to reduce uncertainty for customers. The summit recap does not specify particular actions or announce a new policy or product initiative. The next useful evidence will be updated market data and more detail on how households and professionals are making project decisions.
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Key Questions
What was the main news from HIRI’s 2026 summit?
HIRI presented research and forecasts on economic conditions, customer behavior, AI and home improvement spending at its Sept. 29-30 meeting in Minneapolis.
What did HIRI forecast for the home improvement products market?
HIRI projected 2.5% growth in current dollars in 2026 and a 1.5% decline after inflation. These are forecast figures, not final results.
What did the summit report about AI and renovations?
Houzz’s 2026 research, as presented by Liza Hausman, found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI for help. The recap does not establish that AI caused higher spending.
How confident were contractors about future business?
The Q3 2026 Farnsworth Contractor Index put contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. That score reflects reported confidence, not confirmed future work.
What remains unknown about the summit’s findings?
The recap does not provide full methodology for each research result, detailed category-level forecasts or final 2026 spending figures. It also leaves open how AI use affects renovation decisions and outcomes.
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